Guinea’s 2025 Constitutional Referendum: A Power Play by the Junta

(Based on Africa Center for Strategic Studies, “Seven Things to Know about Guinea’s Constitutional Referendum” 15 September 2025)

Guinea, a West African nation with a population of 14.8 million, is set to hold a constitutional referendum on 21 September 2025 under the leadership of Colonel Mamadi Doumbouya’s military junta, which came to power after a coup on 5 September 2021. While the vote has the potential to shape Guinea’s governance for years to come, critics caution that it is intended to legitimise and extend military rule rather than restore democracy.

People walk past a mural showing Guinea's Col. Mamadi Doumbouya (AP Photo/Misper Apawu)

1. A Pathway for the Junta to Stay in Power

The 2021 charter of the junta promised a transition to civilian governance and prohibited junta members from participating in future elections. However, the new draft constitution eliminates this restriction, allowing Doumbouya and his allies to run for office. According to Afrobarometer (2024) polling, 70% of Guineans favour democracy, 84% support a two-term presidential limit, and only 1.3% would vote for Colonel Doumbouya. Meanwhile, opposition parties, such as Alpha Condé’s RPG and Cellou Dalein Diallo’s UFDG, continue to enjoy significantly greater public support.

2. Uneven Playing Field and Political Repression

Since 2022, the junta has prohibited protests, dissolved or suspended numerous parties, frozen opposition accounts, and abducted or imprisoned activists. More than 220 individuals have been killed for dissent since 2021. Notable disappearances include those of civil society leaders, Oumar Sylla and Mamadou Billo Bah. Even internal critics, such as General Sadiba Koulibaly, have died while in custody.

3. Opaque Drafting and Executive Power Grab

The constitution was secretly drafted by the junta's transitional council and approved through a closed vote. Key changes include the extension of the presidential term from five to seven years, with the possibility of one renewal; amnesty for junta members as outlined in Article 198; a bicameral legislature where the president appoints one-third of the senators, effectively barring currently suspended opposition parties; and residency requirements that would exclude exiled leaders.

4. Junta Control Over Voting and Results

The junta has replaced independent electoral bodies with a new Direction Générale des Élections, which falls under the Ministry of Territorial Administration and is led by presidential appointees. Military officials now oversee the management of voting cards, the counting process, and the transmission of results. Additionally, an ad hoc oversight body, ONASUR, is filled with junta appointees.

5. Voter Turnout Threshold

The rules are inconsistent; although the draft constitution suggests that a 50–60% turnout is necessary, the junta’s transitional council omitted this requirement from its referendum law, sparking fears that it might declare victory with minimal participation. The opposition coalition, Forces Vives de la Guinée, has called for a boycott.

6. Restricted Media and Public Awareness Gaps

Press freedom has plummeted, with Guinea experiencing the most significant global decline in 2024, dropping 25 places on the Reporters Without Borders index. Major radio and TV stations remain shut, and journalists have been abducted. With limited debate and critical coverage, many citizens may not fully grasp what they are voting for.

7. Guinea’s Troubled History with Military Rule

For decades, the country has suffered under authoritarian rule, from Sékou Touré’s brutal regime, which claimed 50,000 lives, to the coups led by Lansana Conté in 1984, Moussa Dadis Camara in 2008, and most recently, Doumbouya in 2021. Guinea's democratic breakthrough in 2010 brought economic progress and reforms; however, Condé’s manipulation of term limits between 2019 and 2020 eroded public trust. The new referendum risks repeating the cycles of instability observed in Chad and Gabon.

Conclusion

The Africa Center cautions that the referendum "falls far short of electoral best practices for fairness, transparency, and participation." Instead of serving as a genuine democratic reset, it seems designed to entrench military dominance, potentially dragging Guinea back into the violence and stagnation that have long plagued its political landscape.

Source: Africa Center for Strategic Studies. “Seven Things to Know about Guinea’s Constitutional Referendum” 15 September 2025. The full report can be accessed here.